BrexitPoliticsThe Conservatives

What global warming and Brexit have in common

The Brexit side of politics is starting to sound like global warming fanatics with all the warnings against Theresa May:

Jan 2018: “We have to act now and get rid of Theresa May before it’s too late”.

Feb 2018: “We have to act now and get rid of Theresa May before it’s too late”.

March 2018: “We have to act now and get rid of Theresa May before it’s too late”.

April 2018: “We have to act now and get rid of Theresa May before it’s too late”.

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Oct 2018: “We have to act now and get rid of Theresa May before it’s too late”.

Every day my Twitter feed is full of this stuff: Act now before it’s too late, from both greens and Brexiteers.

But of course in the case of Brexit there really is a genuine threat. Unfortunately it pretty much is too late now. The actions needed to have taken place at least six months ago. Although if they did actually vote her out tomorrow then perhaps Brexit could be salvaged. But it’s clear that they won’t. I can’t believe that there aren’t at least 48 MPs who want her out, so the fact that they haven’t put in their letters tells us that they don’t think they have the numbers for the vote of confidence. Look at the way they rolled over at the 1922 meeting yesterday.

So May is just going to trundle on obfuscating endlessly, playing for time, running out the clock, until it really is too late to do anything, and Parliament will then vote for the deal she presents, because they’ll be terrified of a no-deal Brexit where no time is left to sort out the problem areas. Tory MPs are mostly Remainers who are trusting that despite a Brexit betrayal they’ll still get more votes than Corbyn, although I think they may be in for a shock there. But the aim is to fudge the Brexit betrayal so the voters aren’t really sure of what’s happening, so they won’t get angry enough to desert the Tories when Corbyn is the alternative.

The only hope is that enough rogue MPs put their letters into Graham Brady despite being told not to by the other rebels. But May winning a confidence vote would be disastrous for Brexit. The only thing the rebels could do then is to try other wrecking tactics which would probably split the party badly and may bring on a general election (although I doubt they’ll have the balls for any of that).

Then again, wrecking the Conservative Party would be a pretty good outcome in my view. But not as good as getting a real Brexit. (Best of all would be to get Brexit and then see the Conservative Party destroyed.)

 

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2 thoughts on “What global warming and Brexit have in common

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