I think we can safely say that the media is deliberately causing UKIP to disappear. Sure UKIP’s support went down after June 2016, but that doesn’t explain the media blackout. The real explanation for that is that UKIP went a bit anti-Islam, and brought in Tommy Robinson as an advisor. That made it beyond the pale for the media, even the supposed conservative media. For instance, the only time I’ve seen the Telegraph mention UKIP in the last few months is to dismiss or attack them as hate-filled extremists and actual fascists — see here, here, here and here. Sadly, that tactic seems to be working.
Nigel Farage is one who understands this very well, which is why he has distanced himself completely from the current UKIP. He is, after all, as the left is always telling us, very much an Establishment figure, and Establishment figures don’t want to be associated with street ruffians, or people that everyone at the golf club regards as akin to Mussolini. So, barring a No Deal Brexit and a subsequent mass desertion from the Conservative party by all the wet Remainers, this new Brexit party formed by Catherine Blaiklock may be the right’s best hope.
However, Farage, who was supposedly going to front it, has been noticeably lukewarm since it was revealed that Blaiklock might have once criticised Islam herself. And for all the talk of 100 000 potential members and over a million donations, none of that is in the bag until it’s actually in the bag.
What would cause an earthquake, though, is if Brexit gets delayed and all the Tory Leavers quit the party to join the Brexit party. That would completely change British politics forever. The Independent Group, on the other hand, has changed very little, they’re just a bunch of Remainer sore losers who were about to be deselected, and who will soon disappear from view.
But all the ERG big hitters joining the Brexit party would destroy the Conservative Party overnight. May and her team, for all that they wish to frustrate Brexit, know this. They know that the ERG are willing to blow up the party if it betrays Brexit. That’s the one thing that the ERG have over May. I hope that she’s scared of them enough to go through with a No Deal Brexit, because if she doesn’t she’ll be forever known as the leader that destroyed the most successful political party the UK has ever seen.
But if Parliamentary Remainers unite to frustrate Brexit, then all hell will break loose. And if an early election is called, then Leave voters will be as mad as hell, but will have no-one to vote for. There could be some very quick repositioning going on at that stage…