The LibDems, until recently as useless as ever, will be getting all excited about this poll:
Westminster voting intention:
LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)
Chgs. w/ 17 May
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 30, 2019
They may be thinking that they can replace Labour as the prime left-of-centre party. If Labour voters abandon their old home for the untainted LibDems, then we’re talking 43% of the vote. And maybe some of those Green votes too..
The problem with this thinking is that there is always going to be a proportion of left-wing Labour voters that will stick with Labour through thick and thin, especially the harder leftists for whom a Corbynista party is the right party, not a bunch of squishy third-rate Blairities. So I can’t see enough Labour voters switching to LibDems to give the LibDems a chance of victory.
And there will be Labour leavers who are never going to move to an anti-Brexit party like the LibDems. Even if they abandon Labour in the situation where Labour comes out for Remain, they’ll go to the Brexit Party, not the LibDems.
I also think Green voters are likely to stick with the Greens, unless the LibDems decide to put on some more greenface.
And Remain Tories? There aren’t that many of them outside the Houses of Parliament. There are some semi-Remain Conservative voters, but most of them will probably stick with the Tories.
The Brexit Party, on the other hand, can hoover up most of the remaining Conservative votes if they play their cards right, plus quite a lot of Labour’s…