Boris JohnsonBrexitPoliticiansPoliticsThe ConservativesTheresa May

The delay to a new PM is, I think, a good thing

Some people wanted a Boris coronation to save the pointlessness of a  month run-off between Boris and Hunt, when it’s obvious Boris will win. I can see one advantage of that — getting Theresa May out of office before she does any more damage.

Others want the party hustings to take place in order that party members can really see their candidates in action. Personally I don’t really care about that, being someone who regards the Tories as failed party who need to fold quickly and quietly.

But I do want to see the Boris v Hunt fight go on until the end (July 22).

Although there are advantages to getting rid of May before then, the most important thing is that time is gained for the Brexit Party to get their candidates ready in case there is a no-confidence vote passed in a Boris Johnson government. Which some people, like Andrew Lilico, think will happen pretty much as soon as he takes over. I’m less convinced, because of the high chance that the Tory and CUK Remainers who might support such a vote would lose their seats. And also because of the chance that a pro-Leave Johnson government, especially if they’ve done a deal with the Brexit Party, would win the election. And also because the only alternative to that is a Corbyn government.

But clearly there is a reasonable chance that there may be an early election before the end of the year, so every extra week the Brexit Party has to prepare the better.

The other reason a delay in a new PM taking over is good is that that gives us another month in which the government and the EU will not be negotiating, and the less time to negotiate the less time the EU will have to work over our new team. (So there’ll only be around three months left to negotiate, plus the EU will have a new team being put together themselves, so time is very short.)

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