If you’d ask me a few days ago what the odds are on Boris Johnson actually doing a No Deal Brexit would have sung you the bit from Jeff Wayne’s War of the Worlds:
The chances of Boris getting No Deal
Are a million to one, he said.
The chances of Boris getting No Deal
Are a million to one, but still he comes.
Now Boris confirms this:
Boris Johnson has said the chances of a no-deal Brexit are a “million-to-one against”, despite promising to leave on 31 October whether or not he has managed to strike a new agreement with the European Union.
Johnson, the frontrunner to be prime minister, told a hustings that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were vanishingly small, as he believed there was a mood in the EU and among MPs to pass a new Brexit deal.
Boris has no more intention of letting a No Deal happen than Theresa May did, or Jeremy Hunt does. Don’t believe me? Then take a look at his own plans:
Plan A was “to get an agreement that is better than the current one you’ve said and to get out on October 31st.”
This would mean removing the Northern Ireland backstop – which critics say threaten to keep the UK tied to the EU indefinitely – from the agreement.
So his main plan is just to get May’s deal through with only one of the disastrous elements removed. Great.
But, you may reply, this is all just pretence, he knows it can’t happen so really his aim is No Deal.
If you think that, you might want to take a look at his Plan B:
If the revised Withdrawal Agreement were blocked by MPs or Brussels, Plan B would see the UK leave on October 31 and continue to adhere to EU regulations until a free trade deal were signed.
Under this standstill agreement “the UK and the EU [will] keep going with the existing arrangements until such time as we’ve completed our free trade agreement and we use that period to solve the questions of the Northern Irish border”, he said.
This is the real plan in case A fails (and maybe the real plan all along). We ‘leave’ on October 31, but in effect we stay in the EU for the indefinite future, until a free trade agreement is signed, an agreement which the EU will have no incentive at all to move their feet on. The EU will in fact have no reason at all to offer us a good deal. What can we do about that? Nothing at all. Either we stay in indefinitely as a sort of ghost member, which will suit the Establishment fine, or we eventually sign up to anything just to get out of limbo, which will be just as bad or even worse, because we’ve seen how ruthless the EU is about what they expect us to sign up to. (Note what complete shitheads they’re being with the Swiss at the moment.)
A No Deal Brexit is only Plan C for Boris:
The final option was Plan C – preparing to exit the EU on October 31 without a trade deal.
But as we’ve seen, he thinks this is a million-to-one. It’s A and B he’s really after. With both of those he can say that he kept his word to get us out by Oct 31, even though A will be fake Brexit, and B will be even faker Brexit. But technically we’ll be out.
I don't find Boris saying that there is only a very very very small possibility of No Deal remotely reassuring. That just tells me he's in total denial & isn't seriously embracing, planning or preparing for the only realistic way there is to leave. Disappointing. https://t.co/D6hsG0mvfs
— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) June 27, 2019
“I want obviously to have a broad range of talent in my Government, the Government that I will lead, but clearly people must be reconciled to the very, very, very small possibility [of No Deal], and I stress it will be a very, very small possibility, that we would have to leave on those terms”
It seems to me that he thinks it’s all about getting a fake Brexit by Oct 31.