Boris JohnsonBrexitPoliticiansPoliticsThe Conservatives

The chances of anything coming from Mars are… the same as Boris getting us a No Deal Brexit

If you’d ask me a few days ago what the odds are on Boris Johnson actually doing a No Deal Brexit would have sung you the bit from Jeff Wayne’s War of the Worlds:

The chances of Boris getting No Deal

Are a million to one, he said.

The chances of Boris getting No Deal

Are a million to one, but still he comes.

Now Boris confirms this:

Boris Johnson has said the chances of a no-deal Brexit are a “million-to-one against”, despite promising to leave on 31 October whether or not he has managed to strike a new agreement with the European Union.

 

Johnson, the frontrunner to be prime minister, told a hustings that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were vanishingly small, as he believed there was a mood in the EU and among MPs to pass a new Brexit deal.

Boris has no more intention of letting a No Deal happen than Theresa May did, or Jeremy Hunt does. Don’t believe me? Then take a look at his own plans:

Plan A was “to get an agreement that is better than the current one you’ve said and to get out on October 31st.”

This would mean removing the Northern Ireland backstop – which critics say threaten to keep the UK tied to the EU indefinitely – from the agreement.

So his main plan is just to get May’s deal through with only one of the disastrous elements removed. Great.

But, you may reply, this is all just pretence, he knows it can’t happen so really his aim is No Deal.

If you think that, you might want to take a look at his Plan B:

If the revised Withdrawal Agreement were blocked by MPs or Brussels, Plan B would see the UK leave on October 31 and continue to adhere to EU regulations until a free trade deal were signed.

 

Under this standstill agreement “the UK and the EU [will] keep going with the existing arrangements until such time as we’ve completed our free trade agreement and we use that period to solve the questions of the Northern Irish border”, he said.

This is the real plan in case A fails (and maybe the real plan all along). We ‘leave’ on October 31, but in effect we stay in the EU for the indefinite future, until a free trade agreement is signed, an agreement which the EU will have no incentive at all to move their feet on. The EU will in fact have no reason at all to offer us a good deal. What can we do about that? Nothing at all. Either we stay in indefinitely as a sort of ghost member, which will suit the Establishment fine, or we eventually sign up to anything just to get out of limbo, which will be just as bad or even worse, because we’ve seen how ruthless the EU is about what they expect us to sign up to. (Note what complete shitheads they’re being with the Swiss at the moment.)

A No Deal Brexit is only Plan C for Boris:

The final option was Plan C – preparing to exit the EU on October 31 without a trade deal.

But as we’ve seen, he thinks this is a million-to-one. It’s A and B he’s really after. With both of those he can say that he kept his word to get us out by Oct 31, even though A will be fake Brexit, and B will be even faker Brexit. But technically we’ll be out.

Update:

Update 2:

In an interview with Conservative Home Johnson has said:

“I want obviously to have a broad range of talent in my Government, the Government that I will lead, but clearly people must be reconciled to the very, very, very small possibility [of No Deal], and I stress it will be a very, very small possibility, that we would have to leave on those terms”

It seems to me that he thinks it’s all about getting a fake Brexit by Oct 31.

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8 thoughts on “The chances of anything coming from Mars are… the same as Boris getting us a No Deal Brexit

  1. Plans A & B carry a very high risk of destruction of the Conservative party. I think Boris (and Hunt) both understand that. The party may well be stupid enough to force the next PM not to go for C, but it will get what it already richly deserves. (In my opinion).

  2. >Plans A & B carry a very high risk of destruction of the Conservative party.

    Definitely.

    >I think Boris (and Hunt) both understand that.

    Boris possibly does, but he’ll try to fudge it as usual.

    Hunt doesn’t understand it.

  3. Maybe it’s this…

    The only way he can get through a no confidence vote is by pretending that a ‘deal’ is possible. Which it probably isn’t.

    Prepare for WTO exit, pretending it’s just to get a better deal.

    Run down the clock until it’s too late for the Remaniacs to do anything about it. Pretend that it is a shame, but he was given no choice.

    Then Leave on 31st October, as is the current law of the land.

    I suspect that back in July 2016 the odds of BoJo being Prime Minister were close to one in a million.

    Looks to me like he’s the perfect man for the job.

    All together now ‘oh yes, he’s the Great Pretender, whoa-oh-oh!’

  4. >What a nightmare. Is there nobody that understands negotiation in your fine country?

    There are many, very good negotiators in the UK. However, the next PM’s problems are (1) the enemy without (Brussels) and (2) the enemies within and they are legion. If Boris isn’t already familiar with Machiavelli, he should study it closely and fast. Niccolo’s advice on how to behave having taken control of a hostile city should be the new PM’s guide. Do all the necessary brutal things immediately and completely. Make all your enemies fear you. A nice guy won’t survive until Halloween.

  5. I’ve been hoping that’s it, but I really doubt it is. I don’t think you’d be saying it’s a million to one in that case, you’d say it’s very unlikely, but the fact that he is being so, so emphatic about this makes me suspect that his real plan just is Plan B. (Or even A.) I can’t see him pulling us out at the last minute without the country being prepared for it. He has some balls, does Boris, but not to that extent.

    Also, for a long time people believed of Theresa May that she wasn’t really that bad, and that she was stringing the Remainers along, and was really a proper Brexiteer underneath it all. Turns out that was all fantasy. I see no reason to think any differently of Boris, especially when we know the one thing he’s really good at is giving right-wingers the impression he’s on their side, and then letting them down when it counts.

  6. Hector
    Of course you are right (which is why I prefaced my comment with Maybe), and we’re all praying that Boris doesn’t turn out to be May mk2. I guess his choices for cabinet will let us know a lot more…

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