I’m in the middle of summer hols, and there isn’t much internet access, which explains the lack of posting, but I thought I should note while I have the chance to be online that all the signs still are that Boris will fudge his No Deal Brexit. He talks a good game, but past evidence suggests that he pushes at Establishment views without really taking them on:
Britain could remain in the customs union and single market for another two years after Brexit, Boris Johnson said yesterday – as he suggested a negotiated deal with Brussels was still possible.
The Boris bounce was actually pretty pitiful:
Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minster has boosted his party in the polls more than any other Conservative leader in modern political times.
Mr Johnson won the Tory leadership race just last week but his party has already begun polling at 29.8 percent rating in four different opinion polls. This marks a 5.5 percent increase in polls conducted before he took office. The only other Prime Minister who has managed such a huge feat is Tony Blair, according to data from Pollsters.
5.5% may be a lot historically speaking, but in these extraordinary circumstances I’d say it’s nowhere near enough. A lot of people who have switched to the Brexit Party are not coming back to the Tories, not even with one of their most vocal No Dealers in charge. When Johnson tries to foist another pretend/delayed Brexit upon us many will drift back to the Brexit party, and that will be it forever for the Tories and their pretend conservatism.