Boris JohnsonBrexitEUPoliticiansPoliticsThe ConservativesTheresa May

The biggest threat to Brexit is not from the Remainers…

… it’s from the government. The Remainers can do nothing against a determined government. The Benn-Burt bill can easily be sidestepped, for example, by sending an additional letter to the EU making  an extension impossible. Other Remainer last-minute tactics can also be stopped by a government that is determined enough. I expect Parliament could be prorogued until the start of November if necessary.

No, the biggest problem is Johnson, Cummings and their team. As I’ve been saying all along, they’re not No Dealers. They want a deal. They want a deal pretty desperately, in fact. The EU knows that as well, because Johnson and co… keep saying so. Yes, this amazingly crack team of supposedly ruthless negotiators keep talking about how much they really don’t want No Deal. Way to convince the other side, dudes. Sure May and her team were history’s worst ever negotiators, but this lot aren’t far behind.

Take this, for example:

[Johnson said] that no-deal would be a “failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible”.

This is, at first glance, an utterly stupid thing to say, not only because it signals to the EU how desperate he is for a deal, but it also makes it difficult for himself to accept No Deal, because then No Deal becomes condemned as a failure by his own words. But I think the real point of him saying it was to both signal to the EU that he wants a deal – please give me something – and to soften Brexiteers up for No Deal not happening.

Johnson is convinced that the EU will crack and he’ll get a good deal. He’s been saying for years that the real negotiation happens in the last few weeks, or even days. Maybe the EU will crack, I don’t know. But why would they, when they know Johnson will? They’re psychopaths and ideologues, and he isn’t. They know he’s boxed himself into a corner almost as badly as May has.

The EU’s tactic has remained the same for years. Offer the same piece of shit over and over again, knowing that as time runs out Parliament may become desperate enough to pass it. In indicating that he’d really, really, prefer not to walk away with no deal, Johnson has proved little more adept than Theresa May at coping with a real-life negotiation.

 

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2 thoughts on “The biggest threat to Brexit is not from the Remainers…

  1. I think we have to stop listening too much to words, because words are cheap and may be meant for one particular audience but not another. Boris may indeed be saying ‘We want a deal’, but for whose consumption is that statement meant? The EU, or the the UK media, to keep them and the Remainers off his back a while longer?

    Put it this way, if his real plan was to force us into a no deal at the last minute using legal jiggery pokery, would he be broadcasting this plan to all and sundry now? Of course not, he’d be swearing blind he wanted a deal, acting like he was on his uppers, all the while preparing for No Deal. And as far as I can see, thats what we’re getting – lots of talk about deals, but action on No Deal.

    Now I could be wrong, and we’re being set up for the mother of all betrayals, but equally I can’t see anything thats happening or being said now being inconsistent with Boris being ready to leave on the 31st with or without a deal, come hell or high water.

    The one thing we can say is that Boris has nailed his colours pretty hard to the mast on leaving on the 31st, so if the EU aren’t going to budge, then No Deal it will be whether Boris or anyone else likes it. As you’ve rightly pointed out there’s a myriad of ways that the Government can avoid the A50 extension letter if they want to, not least ignoring it and letting the Remainers do their worst. A strategy that has the advantage of having a pretty good legal defence that the Bill passed to demand the letter was incorrectly deemed not to require Queens Consent (by the Speaker natch) and thus is not legal. It would all get bogged down in legal shenanigans, but thats only to the Government’s advantage – the more time spend arguing over how many Poison Dwarves can dance on a Parliamentary pinhead, the more the clock counts down to No Deal.

    Incidentally I’m much heartened by the number of Remainers (including the Treasonous Dwarf) who seem to be jumping ship – this to me suggests they know the jig is up – if there were some BRINO deal in the offing, or even a A50 revocation, why would they all be heading for the exits? After all their policy is for an extension, which suggests another 3 months of the same Parliamentary games, so why leave now, unless they know we definitely are on the way out?

  2. I’m also convinced that Boris fully intends to leave by Oct 31. That I don’t doubt. It’s him presenting a deal that worries me.

    And he’s playing May’s game of forcing it through at the last minute on the basis that the Brexiteers will be frightened it’s that or no Brexit, and the Remainers will be frightened that it’s that or No Deal (unlike with May, they know he really does intend to leave on Oct 31).

    >so if the EU aren’t going to budge, then No Deal it will be whether Boris or anyone else likes it.

    Or Boris presents a watered-down WA.

    >if his real plan was to force us into a no deal at the last minute using legal jiggery pokery, would he be broadcasting this plan to all and sundry now? Of course not, he’d be swearing blind he wanted a deal, acting like he was on his uppers, all the while preparing for No Deal.

    This is a thought that has comforted me, and I hope it’s right, but then people liked to think that about Theresa May as well, and it turned out not to be true.

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