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Shock as court packed with fanatical establishment Remainers comes out for fanatical establishment Remain side

So Parliament is going to sit again. No doubt it could, with Bercow’s connivance, pass all sorts of laws. But in the end, it’s the PM who has to ask for the extension. And Boris can still refuse, whether outright, or by way of some legal cleverness. So the Remainers in Parliament still really have only two options.

One option is to outright revoke. I wouldn’t put that past them now, but they’ll be signing their own death warrant if they do. That will result in widespread outrage, and intense pressure to have a new election, which will have to happen sooner or later, and that will result in pro-Brexit party or parties winning, and they’ll just pull us out of the EU straight away.

However, the wild card is how many Conservatives vote for revocation. A handful the party can cope with, as long as they are immediately expelled and replaced. But suppose fifty did? It’s hard to see how the party can get over that. That would make it pretty clear that the Conservatives are riddled with anti-democrats EU fanatics. There would be a mass defection of voters to the Brexit Party, but the worry would be that not enough defect, and both parties scupper each other.

The other option for the Remainers in Parliament is to finally have a confidence vote in Johnson, and then vote in a new Remain PM, who will go to the EU and get an extension. But the electorate would also be outraged by Parliament appointing a Remain PM who crawls off to the EU, and an early election would have to take place sooner or later, which would again probably be won by pro-Brexit party.

Another serious risk for the Remainers with this strategy is that it may be that no Remain figure gets enough backing, and a general election has to take place instead, which the Conservatives would probably win, with most of the Remainers losing their seats.

The wild card with option two is the same sort as with option one: how many Tory MPs would vote for a Remain PM? If you got fifty or more doing so then the previous intra-party schisms will look like a disagreement at a debating society, and the Conservatives would struggle to keep themselves above water, and they may take down the Brexit Party with them.

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3 thoughts on “Shock as court packed with fanatical establishment Remainers comes out for fanatical establishment Remain side

  1. I worry if Parliament does revoke, the EU will accept only on the condition that Article 50 cannot be invoked again (plus they’ll probably push for the UK to sign up to the Euro and Schengen) locking us in for good. In that case, I propose the best option would be for England and Wales to scede from the UK…

  2. I don’t think this decision changes much, not with regard to Brexit. It changes an awful lot else within the UK Constitution, such as it is, as the Supreme Court are now the ultimate arbiters of political decisions within that constitutional framework. Its a massive power grab basically by the lawyers, as ever. I’m beginning to understand Shakespeare’s dictum about lawyers even better than ever…..

    However with regards to the actual Brexit issue, not much has changed. Parliament still has a remain majority, and the A50 extension Bill is still sat there, so they can’t really do much until Boris decides whether he’s going to comply or not. And given they were going to be back in time to deal with the outcome of that being there for another few weeks isn’t really going to make much odds. They’ve set their stall out weeks ago, they’ll have to wait to see whether their Bill does what they want it to or not. In the meantime Boris’s option are hardly changed, other than he can’t prorogue Parliament again, which I don’t think was on the cards anyway, though I guess had by some miracle the judges kept their noses out of politics he could have then used his power to prorogue Parliament until after the 31st Oct.

    Incidentally am I right in thinking that Lady Hale has made public speeches on the Brexit issue? That show where her political views lie?

  3. The whole problem is that the referendum was held in the safe knowledge that leave couldn’t possibly win. All of the wheeling and dealing since then has been about undoing the terrible mistake that was made in allowing the public a say on the matter of our EU membership. As far as I am concerned, since the result was announced, all of those remain MPs are wrong by definition. If they really couldn’t bring themselves to support the leave side the only honourable thing to do was to resign.

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