I had a look through the England and Wales weekly death stats for this year so far and previous years. The 2020 figures provided nothing to be worried about. They’re here if you want to look yourself.
I couldn’t find them in line graph form (the Office for National Statistics don’t do that, which is utterly useless of them), so in despair I started to copy them down to convert myself into a graph. But then I found that someone had done it — not overlayed the last few years together like I wanted to, but graphed out this year’s and last year’s figures up until mid-February. It’s rather startling to see it like this (click to enlarge):
He also did the cumulative deaths. Turns out that we’re 5000 deaths under the average for the last five years (click to enlarge):
This is what they’re telling you is a real-life horror movie.
Of course, people on social media are saying, ‘But this doesn’t include the last few weeks’. But that includes merely a few hundred supposed excess deaths. They won’t trouble the stats much.
Others are saying ‘School yourself in explosive power of exponential growth, which is coming any day now’. Exponential growth is the new hockey stick, usually spouted by people who know very little about maths and statistics and epidemiology, and it’s been coming any day now for quite a while. (A moveable feast, it seems.)
[Graphs made by Alistair Haimes, well done fella]