I’ve seen your latest graphs on Twitter (which I don’t normally use or else I’d ask you this there).
If they show deaths up to 27th of March, a date when there had been approx. 1,000 CV19 deaths, then won’t future graphs actually show something significant considering that deaths have topped 6,000 in the eleven following days? That kind of figure will surely give a big spike, will it not?
Matt, it would be extremely astonishing if there wasn’t a visible spike, seeing as we’ve turned into a police state, sitting inside under house arrest while the economy goes down the pan. Even I have been expecting an increase in deaths and then a fading out as spring takes hold, so even I have been surprised to see nothing at all in the graphs so far.
But it doesn’t look like we’re going to see Armageddon in the figures for the coming weeks, those numbers you’re talking about just aren’t large enough. 6000 in 11 days is 545 a day, but over 1500 are normally dying every day at this time of year, and quite a lot of those 545 are not going to be additional deaths, but people who would have died of something soon anyway. (Also, the Covid-19 figures includes some people who didn’t die of Covid-19.) So I wouldn’t expect the coming graphs to be crap-your-pants scary.
In other words, it would be incredible if we can’t see Covid-19 in the next few sets of graphs. I’m expecting we will. But will they show a once-in-a-century mass killer? Not looking like that so far.
But anyway I am on Toby Young’s side. Even if Neil Ferguson was right about the number of deaths, that doesn’t justify what we are doing to the economy and society. I’d rather take my chances with the disease than live in a police state with a ruined economy. I don’t want my children, who face virtually zero risk from this disease, to have their futures blighted.