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Sex differences and respiratory graphs for week 15

Blog reader (and retired Professor) Robert Watson has done some more graphs for us.

First of all we have a graph of the sex differences in the Covid-19-related deaths category for weeks 11-15 (click to enlarge).

And here’s a chart listing the sex breakdown for Covid-19 deaths, including cumulative counts (numbers and percentages). Note that even when we’ve done the 70-74 age bracket (yellow line), we’ve still only accounted for 30% of the Covid-19 deaths (click to enlarge).

Robert says:

Only, one in 400 (0.27%) deaths relates to someone under the age of 30.  Also, up to this age group the number of male and female deaths are identical.  Above this age the male covid-19 deaths increasingly outstrip the female deaths.

 

For example, the under 65 year olds only make up 13% (1,350 deaths) of all covid-19 deaths.  However, the number of  male under 65 deaths (867) is almost twice the number of under 65 year old female deaths (483).

 

The under 75’s make up only 31% of all covid-19 deaths (alternatively, 69% of deaths happened to people 75 years old or older).

 

The pattern of covid-19 deaths to date seem to strike the same demographic as other respiratory diseases and which rationally really ought not to be something for relatively healthy folks (particularly females) below State pension age to worry themselves over.

 

A graph of weekly respiratory deaths (Eng & Wales), up to the end of week 15 (10 April) (click to enlarge).

Bear in mind, though, that generally Covid-19 deaths aren’t manifesting (or being recorded) as respiratory deaths. Robert says:

It seems to me that given the simultaneous large increase in total deaths and the fall in reported respiratory deaths, that the ONS is treating relatively few of the 6,213 covid-19 attributed deaths in week 15 as respiratory deaths.

 

Finally, a cumulative graph of respiratory deaths (England and Wales) up to the end of week 15 (10 April), with the prior 5-year average in there (orange line) for context (click to enlarge).

Robert adds:

I’m hoping to get the ONS data relating to the size of age cohorts and the number of deaths from all causes for each age cohort and sex category to estimate the typical probability of death from other-than-covid-19 causes in order to calculate conditional deaths rates and then to estimate the added likelihood of death from covid-19.  I’m expecting that the incremental increased probability of death from covid-19 will be close to zero for below pension-age cohorts.

(Thanks to Robert. All stats from the ONS.)

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5 thoughts on “Sex differences and respiratory graphs for week 15

  1. Robert: From what you say, you don’t think the ONS is treating C-19 deaths as due to respiratory failure. But if C-19 doesn’t kill people via respiratory failure, how does it do so?

  2. Just a thought ….

    The older someone is the more likely they will have started work in an area of heavy industrialisation where they will have been subjected to higher pollution levels and carrying out hard manual work. It was also an era when fewer women worked and those that did didn’t work in those areas.

    Its no coincidence that women really started asserting the right to work in the ’80s, although it started in earnest the late 60’s, that’s when we started to move work in to nice comfy offices as old industries were shut down.

    Someone 65 now would have started work 50 years ago (yes, we left school at 15 then, I’m 63 and was the last year to leave school at 15) so that would have started work in 1970.

    Its probably too late to find out the occupation of those who’ve already died but it might be worth some investigation, if only for academic research.

  3. It seem that as COVID-19 is classified separately from respiratory disease it will only be counted as respiratory if the underlying cause is respiratory disease other than COVID-19.

    “The underlying cause of death is defined by WHO as: the disease or injury that initiated the train of events directly leading to death”

    The weekly figures do not provide details of all causes,only respiratory, so working out what other underlying conditions may be is not possible. The rise in respiratory deaths in week 15 is not exceptional for the season.

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