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John Church: A Letter to Sir David King

This is an open letter to Sir David King by John Church. King was the notorious Chief Scientific Officer of the UK during the foot and mouth days, and he was also a heavy pusher of global warming. Currently he is the head of self-proclaimed ‘Independent SAGE’. John sent this to me last month, but due to overwork and then holidays I didn’t get a chance to publish it until now. Seeing, however, that King and Independent SAGE have continued on with their foolish and heavily political approach – eg. King warned a couple of days ago that schools must not open up again without a fully-functioning track-and-trace system – it’s still apposite.

Dear Sir David,

I was exceptionally disheartened to see the intervention you made this weekend regarding your (and your group of ‘external experts’) view on the UK’s increasing freedoms and economic activity. Apart from the curmudgeonly tone expressing your concern about normal people trying to do normal things again, any logic and reasoning behind your views seems to be singularly absent. I hardly know where to start.

But I will start. With your basic mathematics. Based on the clips I have seen of your TV appearances this week-end, you stated your concern that the approach of the Government of maintaining a rate of around 3000 new infections a day will result in 27,000 excess deaths between now and next April. Now maybe I have this wrong and please correct me if I do. But 3000 new infections a day for 9 months would be about 810,000 additional infections by next April. Is that correct? I am fundamentally perplexed as to how you jump to 27,000 excess deaths from this figure. Primary school-level maths (which incidentally fewer and fewer primary school students will be able to do because people like you don’t want them to go to school) leads to a fatality rate just under 3.4%! Apart from the suspicious similarity to the original fatality rate being promulgated by the WHO at the start of the year when we were seeing the Wuhan problem, why do you think the fatality rate is that high? There are many different views of the fatality rate but without exception none now talk about anything above 1%. The US CDC quotes 0.26% for the US, and my own analyses have consistently placed the UK demographic at around 0.5%, based on various data sets around the world. Assuming 0.5% mortality, the excess deaths of the government strategy would be about 4000.

But there are multiple other reasons why even this many deaths might be an overestimate. Here are just two. Firstly, we know that medical treatments are fast evolving, as per the example of the UK’s own study discovering the efficacy of the steroid Dexamethasone. And secondly, we are all behaving in very different ways. The evidence (from this country and the US as well) is that it is primarily younger people that are maintaining infection levels. Not the elderly, who are taking their precautions much more seriously. Unlike before, when we incompetently killed tens of thousands of care home folks by deliberately spreading Covid in those places. Where were your warnings then Sir David, back in March and early April? Where were you then? Why didn’t you see that coming? Perhaps we will have learnt not to do that now and take more care with those in our population that need additional protection.

But most depressing is your complete blindness to the cost of further lockdown. Can you not see what is happening in this country? To the education levels of our children? To the rapidly increasing ranks of the unemployed? To the Treasury’s tax receipts which we need to pay for the NHS? To the mental health of all those vulnerable people for whom lockdown has been a literal nightmare? What is your proposal to them, Sir David? What are you going to do about the very real needs of millions and millions of us?

And finally, what is completely missing is any description of an exit strategy from your ‘proposal’. Your statement calling for a Zero Covid UK is quite simply utter nonsense. Haven’t you looked at the difficulty that countries like Australia or South Korea now have in that aspiration? Open your eyes. It’s impossible without locking up the whole world for so long we would all starve to death. So when we have been locked up for another nine months or another year, or even two or three, what then ? When nobody in our country can actually remember what normal life used to be like, what then? What then, Sir David?

Please can I ask you to refrain from putting this utter nonsense out into our media. We both know that the media only loves bad news, so I doubt very much if anyone challenged your failed elementary mathematics. And I’m sure you revel in your contrarian role and the maximum publicity it engenders, but you do a huge disservice to your fellow countrymen. Please desist.

Best Regards
John Church.

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12 thoughts on “John Church: A Letter to Sir David King

  1. Masterful. You expressed my own opinions exactly. I have nothing to add except I hope Your correspondent reads it and reflects on it.
    BG

  2. Governments seem to be trying to take a Utopian purity approach to Covid, ignoring all other unintentional, though well-documented, downsides. New Zealand’s PM is hugely proud that their country has had no new Covid infections for 100 days. How long are they prepared to keep their borders closed to protect this record? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?

  3. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if somehow, some way, we could have a government that ruled in the interests of the British people at large? It would, of course, be even better if such a government were to recognise and make use of the huge combined knowledge and experience of British scientists and doctors to make informed decisions.

    Does anyone know how we could set about getting such a government?

  4. Well said John – although the deaf ears are already closed.

    “Zero Covid UK”

    Absolutely f.ing barmy. Where do these O.B.N characters leave their intelligence and sense of proportion when the head disappears up the arse?

    Crap science like this is doing a hell of a lot of on-going damage in terms of playing to the gallery and undermining proper expertise.

    Of course, this was written before the CEBM latest unremarked bombshell :

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/european-case-fatality-rates-beyond-lockdown-and-the-uks-outlier-status/

    … which blows out of the water any shred of credibility that UK ‘Covid’ figures ever had. Unreported (as far as I can see) in the MSM, it’s a devastating indictment for anyone who is broadly numerate and statistically aware.

  5. All titles of knighthood issued under Toni Blair should be written thus: “Sir”.

    The inverted commas could be called a Toni award.

  6. Trade is fundamental to free human existence. It is the foundation of civilisation.
    I believe the problems we face today and have faced for some time stems from the international banking fraternity. The direction the UN’s World economic forum is promoting spells complete subjugation for every human on the planet; digitally tracked currency is not an option and the fiscal blackmail that is mounting forms the predetermined gate from the sheep pen.
    If realisation occurs in time the majority will see they are not sheep and that each country now has ample reason to establish its own debt free currency backed by us “the people.”
    Since people represent true value it is rightfully deserving that we should control our true value.
    It has been successful in the past – the Lincoln greenback in the US and the Bradbury Pound in the UK – so successful in fact that the banks temporarily lost dominance and forced state intervention to end our financial freedom and abundant existence.
    The mindspace document and utterances by the behavioural insights team show their intent.
    They claim to be able manipulate populations without their knowledge and so far this has been the case for the majority.
    After Event 201 it is so utterly shameful to think that the majority are so easily hypnostised by what will be known as biggest fraud ever to take place in human history.
    If this continues it will be the greatest Coup to have ever taken place.

  7. Pcar, I have been spreading the summer flu statistics to all I can! Face to face it elicits a stunned look of disbelief!
    On “sir” David King; I used to think he was a bastion of Skeptical common sense. Obviously not made of very stern stuff.

  8. @Peter
    Thank you. Reaction I’ve had is stunned “Doesn’t compute, ignore”. It should be front page news everywhere

    Surprised @Hector and Toby Young haven’t pushed it
    Seems Flu situation similar in USA

    The Times – paper of record – ran it on Wednesday, still silence on BBC and rest

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