HomeCovid-19The shutdown has just been blown out of the water

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The shutdown has just been blown out of the water — 30 Comments

  1. My prediction, for some time, is that this thing has been out there for months. The scary graphs of exponential increase are not the virus spreading, but simply the increase in testing. It’s an iceburg and they are only just draining the water.

    NZ has committed economic suicide, along with the UK and large parts of the west in order to run away from a shadow.

  2. “Finally, the paper doesn’t contain the details of the mathematical models they’ve used to predict how things will go, but we know that these models can give massively varying results depending on how you build them”

    Yes, perhaps they just pumped some data into a climate model eh?

    • “Yes, perhaps they just pumped some data into a climate model eh?”

      My thoughts exactly – and now (thanks to Covid-19) Climate Change looks as if it will be pushed back to become only the “Second Worse” piece of economic suicide ever committed by a UK government.

  3. It may have gone like this; the group most likely to contract and then spread the virus are the group who are the least likely to show anything much re symptoms : i.e. the young ,fit and socially most active ( or at worse simply diagnosed as having a ‘flu’).
    So could it be that last year the virus was spreading for some time among the young and then ,at the end of the uni or work year ,they went home to see the ‘old folks’ and ‘bingo’.

  4. This is merely a live exercise to see how governments and people will react. I’m horrified at how people have fallen into line and haven’t questioned the narrative at all – even people who usually ALWAYS question the narrative. What a brilliant way to lock a country down; they would have had push back if they’d tried it any other way. This video, from 4 day ago, may be about the US but it’s pertinent for everywhere. Frightening how TPTB have subtly, behind the scenes, take over America. It’s Dark Journalist, about ‘Continuity of Goverment’ – a procedure originally created durng the cold war in the event of a nuclear attack but it’s slowly had all safeguards removed and is now being used to put troops on the ground and no trial arrests over there – sound familiar?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9nTI93FtuU&list=PLKav072MsMji6Evj7iLY-6wkh4TfWpw7q&index=2&t=0s

  5. I thought the news management had altered in the last day or so, from “End of world” to “The NHS will probably cope “. I thought it was just news management, to nudge behaviour, but maybe you’re right and it’s more than that.

  6. Covid19 likely has a very low mortality rate
    Sadly a very small proportion (though of a large population) of sufferers develop acute lung disease requiring surgical intervention
    The NHS works close to capacity at all times and so has inadequate capacity to meet this extra demand
    This is not a reflection on NHS clinical staff
    To reduce the load on the NHS people are being asked to reduce the spread of the disease
    The public (herd) have been confused by the media’s self interested hysteria (they get paid regardless and love the attention) into believing they are at great personal risk and it is all the fault of Covid19/ Wuhan Flu/ Kung Flu
    When the true culprits are:
    1) Absence of disaster planning by Government – yes they should have had a plan ready to wheel out
    2) Years of NHS underfunding by successive governments
    3) Flat footed Government; inability to prepare in January 2020
    4) Irresponsible media – BBC pursuing anti-Johnson agenda and ratings drive
    5) Amateurish Government response in crisis – eg shutting down Nation – when problems are local – if no critical care beds in Dorset implement appropriate measures there – don’t shut down everywhere unless necessary

    Going forward this can be constructive if we realise the hyper intelligent, inexperienced power seeking MP is not the right person to be running departments eg Health, Defence, Education – where they likely have no talent, experience or knowledge.

    • “Years of NHS underfunding by successive governments”

      Underfunding? Isn’t one of the great claims for the NHS how ‘efficient’ it is? Having a health service with lots of space capacity would destroy that claim.

  7. Underfunding of the NHS?
    We now spend roughly European average on NHS, to get one of the most inept services.
    Other countries have a more effective system as it isn’t national – it’s local.
    Also Public Health England alone pissed away 4.5 billion last year on woke bollocks.
    That would have paid for german levels of ventilators, 100 field hospitals and enough stockpiled Chloroquine to give all 60 million of us a course, so we wouldn’t need the extra ventilators anyway.
    (How often are there appeals in US papers to send sick kids to Britain for world leading treatment not available elsewhere- the reverse is frequent enough despite US health care being allegedly crap compared to the NHS)

  8. Very interesting reading, a few weeks ago when there were a hundred or so cases, the CMO suggested there were 5,000 to 10,000 cases likely. Given the suggestion in the Telegraph today that the UK cases might have started a month earlier, one has to suspect that the genie is well and truly out of the bottle. With any luck, the severe cases we’re seeing right now are a spiked tail rather than the start of the curve.

    It does seem odd that so many famous people are testing positive – Justin Trudeau’s wife, Tom Hanks, Mikel Arteta and now Prince Charles. An eclectic group who surely don’t mix in the same circles, only perhaps sharing international travel as a common thread. But how could a pandemic ‘in its infancy’ already have reached so many who are unlikely to use public transport or come into close proximity with the great un-washed, if not for the fact that it might have spread earlier, wider and faster than previously thought?

  9. “But how could a pandemic ‘in its infancy’ already have reached so many who are unlikely to use public transport or come into close proximity with the great un-washed, if not for the fact that it might have spread earlier, wider and faster than previously thought?”

    Good question that is not being looked at. Another one is have they tested aircrew? That should be a population with a very high infection rate if the claims are true.

  10. Hector

    Late to the discussion, but still.

    I listened to some of Ferguson’s evidence, and in stepping back I *think* all he said was
    – we said that if nothing was done, there could be 400-500K deaths in the UK
    – we said that if you put the effective social isolation things in place, likely deaths would drop into the 20K range
    – looking at it all now, holy mierda, looks like we were right about the social isolation – it’s working!

    I don’t think it’s correct to blame him for backtracking; many things, yes, but I think he’s consistent.

    So the obvious question – having looked at all the other data you’ve collected (thanks!) is – so why is the glorious NHS said to be facing a disaster (along with every other health service) of under-resourcing?

    If Governor Cuomo of NY State is to be believed, the big difference isn’t lethality or anything. It’s simply that once on a ventilator, a COVID19 patient may well be there for 10-25 days – sometimes longer. Typical ventilator ‘leases’ are 2-3 days.

    So the number of incoming aren’t much different, but they stay there 10x as long. This has much the same effect as 10x incoming, and 10x is way more of a capacity margin than anyone (apart from Schwarzenegger, apparently) would plan for.

    I’ve looked to see if I could find any data that supports Cuomo’s assertion, but I haven’t found any.

    None of this is to say that Ferguson is competent or even correct. But we’re agreed that his paper was “just computer simulations” based on a bunch of assumptions – NOT a prediction; and that the data used was annoyingly low in quality.

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