Some NHS graphs from reader Christopher Bowyer

By Hector DrummondCovid-19, Government, Health, Health fascism

Christopher Bowyer has sent me some graphs of the NHS Covid-19 death data. Here’s a graph of NHS England Covid-19 deaths and the delays involved (click to enlarge).

A graph of NHS England deaths with Covid-19 by NHS region (reported within 3 days) (click to enlarge).

A graph of the same NHS England deaths with Covid-19 by NHS region (reported within 3 days), but this time as rates (numbers per million) (click to enlarge).

Thanks to Christopher for doing these and sending them to me to share.

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6 thoughts on “Some NHS graphs from reader Christopher Bowyer”

  1. Christopher, Thank you

    Latest All-Cause Mortality Surveillance
    23 April 2020 – Week 17 report (up to week 16 data)

    In week 16 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall and by age group in the 15-64 and 65+ year olds and in all regions in England, through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland in week 16. Statistically significant excess all-cause mortality was observed for Wales in week 16 2020 and for Scotland in week 14 2020

    All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales – In week 15 2020, an estimated 18,516 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is an increase compared to the 16,387 estimated death registrations in week 14 2020

    Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK
    In week 16 2020 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 2 z-score threshold was seen overall, by age group in the 15-64 and 65+ year olds and sub nationally (all ages) in all regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humber, East & West Midlands, East of England, London and South East & West regions after correcting GRO disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 1). This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration; numbers may vary from week to week

    In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland in week 16. Statistically significant excess all-cause mortality was observed for Wales in week 16 and for Scotland in week 14 2020 (Table 2)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880812/Weekly_report_mortality_w17.pdf

    “No statistically significant excess for Northern Ireland in week 16. Statistically significant excess for Wales in week 16 2020 and for Scotland in week 14 2020”

    I’m still not concerned and still believe this is Not a global pandemic

    Global Pandemic?
    Population ~7,800,000,000 – 2,668,135(0.03%) cases of COVID-19 including 190,236(0.0024%) deaths

    Irish Sea and closed borders working for NI?

    Or is it: No snakes in NI? Lots of Orangemen in NI?

  2. Just listened to your chat with JD, with regards to probability models. Italy is poised to financially bring down the EU with the contagion spreading world wide,a coincidence the virus started there in EU?
    Wonder what the probability is of the people who have caused the depression that was coming anyway using this as a scapegoat.
    Sorry to sound like conspiracy theorist but after 2008 and the lunacy which cannot continue, some thing needed to come along to save their skins.

  4. The first graph shows what most visiting here understand already – that the quoted daily deaths are not all for the previous 24 hours. Looking at yesterday (England only)the announced 587 deaths were spread like this

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-24th-april/

    Mr Bowyer’s first graph shows the effect of that delay in announcements with time.

    Nothing startling but important to note – BUT I saw a quote somewhere from someone with a degree in modelling who reckoned that the input each day into the Imperial model was the announced deaths figure. That will produce an erroneous result.

  5. You’d think the model would have some factor to account for known differences in deaths and that it would later be compared to a model without the adjusting factor and the actual numbers entered

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