Positive tests vs admissions vs deaths, graph from Christopher Bowyer (start September)

7 thoughts on “Positive tests vs admissions vs deaths, graph from Christopher Bowyer (start September)”

1. Christopher, thanks. Have shared

   Gov’t response: more lockdowns from midnight

   There is no way ministers don’t know threat is gone, but still they continue the fear mongering and punishment

2. Related

   …Covid to all intents and purposes has gone. It is no longer the mass killer that it was seen as earlier in the year. There is no excuse for the tyranny now, there is no excuse for the trashing of Britain’s economy at a time of Brexit when Britain really does need any economic advantage that we can get and there is no excuse for curfews or any other restriction on Briton’s liberties.

   Those in Government who are behind these outrageous tyrannical curtailments on the movement and activities of Britons need to go. Hancock, Whitty and yes even the Prime Minister need to be replaced over this debacle. Replacing these politicians with those who will be sensible, take a less paranoid view of Covid and who will stop destroying Britain’s economy should be a major priority for Tory MP’s…”
   https://www.fahrenheit211.net/2020/09/17/more-corona-tyranny-for-the-uk/

3. The government data which Mr. Bowyer references can be a little tricky to interpret, so perhaps I am misunderstanding things. We know that a positive test result should not be conflated with meaning an individual has any symptoms — let alone having any serious condition requiring hospitalization. With that caution, I dived in and took a look at a couple of dates:

   31-May, when the “epidemic” was clearly on the decline, the UK tested about 90,000 people and found 1.080 with positive test results. 1.2% positive, almost 99% negative.

   30-Aug, when the actual health “epidemic” was clearly over, the UK tested nearly twice as many people, about 171,000, and found about the same number with positive test results – 1,151. 0.7%. positive.

   Every test provides false positives and false negatives, as anyone who has endured college statistics has learned. Information on the rate of false positives from Pillar 1 & 2 testing is hard to come by. If it is around 1%, then it seems quite plausible that Covid-19 is more or less history, and the “second wave” is simply an artefact of expanded testing with testing procedures that are inevitably less than perfect.

   The best option going forward would be to reaffirm that a “case” requires (a) significant defined symptoms of poor health, and (b) repeated positive tests. But then our Betters would have no excuse for the Lock Downs that seem to give them so much pleasure.

4. Thanks, very useful. Would be good to see the number of tests overlaid onto this chart

5. Positive Covid test numbers alone are uninformative.
   Testing is non-random, and varies over time, both in counts and in the types of people tested (e.g. split between routine health professionals with no suspected infection or symptoms, people with mild to severe symptoms).
   As for admissions & deaths, one of the main reasons given for ongoing/increasing restrictions is the fear of hospitals being overwhelmed, Daily/weekly all-cause hospital admissions (general and ICU), both counts and percentage of 5-year average would be informative in backing this up.
   Deaths and hospitalizations ‘with COVID’ are uninformative as testing rates change over time. All people age over 70 admitted to Scottish hospitals are now routinely tested on admission. Those testing positive are recorded as an ‘admission with COVID’, regardless of the reason for the admission.
   Those who go on to die in hospital (for any reason) will have this positive COVID result recorded on their death certificate and be recorded as a ‘death with COVID’.
   The objective measures (for capacity planning and comparison with previous years) are deaths and admissions of any cause.
   I have been unable to locate the latter.
   Have you had any luck, as beginning to wonder if this is a State secret?

6. @Gavin
   False Positives
   PHE say >98% accurate, Hancock says >99% accurate. Reality is >96%

   Hancock was on Julia Hartley-Brewer and did not understand False Positives
   – J H-B ‘220,000 tested, only 1% were positive – they could all be false’
   – Hancock ‘No only under 1% of the positive results might be false’
   https://youtu.be/ZEqm0ldWf-8?t=107

   :facepalm – this fool is our effective PM

   https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-matt-hancock-taking-false-positive-tests-seriously-

   He doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about. Yet again Julia gives him published facts and he denies them

   A true weasel of a politician talking out of his arse
   They’ll never admit they were wrong. They’ll let everything collapse before they admit in death bed

7. @asi dod
   “one of the main reasons given for ongoing/increasing restrictions is the fear of hospitals being overwhelmed”

   It’s even worse
   The hospitals are almost empty and being cleared again for “second wave” – Gov’t now wants C-19 oldies returned to care homes

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