So there’s been a lot of talk about Neil Ferguson’s history of alarmism, including his work on BSE, foot and mouth and swine flu. What I’d like to do here is to crowd-source some information. If anyone has any has any more knowledge or recollections or links about how he has performed in the past, please add them in the comments. (Defences of Ferguson welcome too, this is supposed to be objective.)
Here’s a little graph to get you going. It concerns foot and mouth policy, where Ferguson and his collaborators advocated a radical slaughter policy, which they claimed was borne out by the results after it was enacted, but others strongly disagreed (click to enlarge):
Christley, Rob & Mort, Maggie & Wynne, Brian & Wastling, Jonathan & Heathwaite, Ann & Pickup, Roger & Austin, Zoe & Latham, Sophia. (2013). “Wrong, but Useful”: Negotiating Uncertainty in Infectious Disease Modelling. PloS one. 8. e76277. 10.1371/journal.pone.0076277
(Not a paper I recommend reading).