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USA all-cause mortality 2015-2020 weeks 1-19

For quite a while I’ve been trying to find the US all-cause death stats for the recent years, but I always assumed that before too long someone more knowledgeable about the US figures would get them and make a graph. But if anyone did, I never saw it.

The CDC website is pretty awful, and unorganised, and it leads you around in circles, but eventually I found them on this page about the flu. Not on the page itself, but if you click on Download (and choose between a few options when they come up), you get a file with various information, including flu and respiratory deaths, but also the all-cause deaths figures back to 2015. (I found that if you opened the file directly into Excel, it didn’t load in any sort of useful way, but if you save the file first and then download it, it works.)

I then had to add up the totals for weeks 1-19 for the last six years. (There is data for weeks 20 and 21 for 2020, but this is incomplete, so I only went up to week 19, which is up to 8 May).

So I’ve made a bar graph out of this data.

Can you see a once-in-a-century disaster here? Or did the various lockdowns amazingly save millions of lives? (They sure were amazing, those lockdowns, weren’t they?)

2020is so far only 10% above the five-year average (which is 1 045 365).

Bear in mind as well that some of these 2020 deaths will be lockdown deaths, rather than Covid-19 deaths.

I’ve also downloaded US state data, which I’ve working through to get the New York City and New York State data from, which has been the worst-hit area in the US.

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9 thoughts on “USA all-cause mortality 2015-2020 weeks 1-19

  1. It’s not even that stark.

    The all-cause mortality from your chart is 16 percent up from 2015. The total population has increased 3 percent. The over 65s have increased 15 percent. The difference is next to nothing.

    Rodney Hide

  2. I believe that the 1968 ‘Hong Kong flu’ (H3N2) killed similar amounts of people. We should really be comparing the improvements in addressing respiratory epidemics over the last century .. if any…

  3. Is it possible from the data to arrive at an all-cause mortality for the flu seasons covering mid-winters and compare this to the covid weeks? It would give a fair picture of comparative effect.

  4. What struck me was the smooth increase in deaths every year – immigration adding to population I assume

    2017 to 2018 – 4% higher
    2019 to 2020 – 7% higher

    A thought – when an illegal immigrant dies I assume they’re added to recorded deaths. This distorts deaths/million population
    In UK illegals increase stated population by ~10%. Estimate is ~1.5million illegals in London alone

  5. The US population has increased by approx 0.5% annually for the past decade. So why would you “assume” that a 4% annual increase – or, indeed, a 7% one – might be explained by “immigration adding to population”? If the size of the US population had increased by 21 million in a single year, that really would be news. Just as it would be if there were 6.5 million “illegals” in the UK (or 1.5 million in London), when even the Telegraph has the upper figure at 1.2 million!

  6. Good work. This is why questioning the collective ‘wisdom’ of experts, MSM, Gov’s and especially SM is so revealing. Looking at large populations for a worldwide pandemic, which is what the WHO and others declared, is the only true way of assessing impact. Globally this virus will be a scratch, the serious wound will be caused by the irrational response and it will fester for years.

  7. @O Please

    The deaths increase this year is high, as it was 17 to 18 followed by small increase 18 to 19. Pandemic – No
    – 2017 to 2018 – 4% increase
    – 2019 to 2020 – 7% increase

    USA deaths in chart show increase by more than 0.5% annually – is life expectancy falling?
    2014: California was home to between 2.35 and 2.6 million illegal immigrants making up >6% of the state’s overall population of 39.5million

    UK supermarket food sales suggest UK pop is ~10million more than official pop
    Thames Water sewage volumes suggested 1 million illegals in London 5-10 years ago

  8. There is a HUGE factor omitted from all of these “excessive death” numbers which is the way that the “excessive death” numbers have been trending over the last decade in the US.

    This year is decidedly NOT an aberration.

    For the US, the Macrotrends site below estimates 8.88 deaths per 1,000 residents for 2020, which would be about 3 million deaths of all causes for Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 of this year. The chances of the “Coronavirus epidemic” pushing that figure noticeably up, in a way such that someone at a distant time or place glancing at a table of deaths for a long period would immediately notice, appears to now be zero. Though I am sure most people will still vaguely think it is a major threat of exactly that kind, owing to the pro-Panic side’s control of the media narrative.

    On total deaths in the 2010’s in the US.

    The low-period for deaths per capita in the US was 2008 to 2013 (rate: 8.12 to 8.16 range). Looking at deaths since then (2013 to 2019):

    US Deaths per 1000 residents:

    – 2013: 8.159
    – 2014: 8.264
    – 2015: 8.369
    – 2016: 8.475
    – 2017: 8.580
    – 2018: 8.685
    – 2019: 8.782
    – 2020: (proj.) 8.880

    US Census estimates for total resident population as of July 1 of each year (Census Table NST-EST 2019-01):

    – 2013: 315,993,715
    – 2014: 318,301,008
    – 2015: 320,635,163
    – 2016: 322,941,311
    – 2017: 324,985,539
    – 2018: 326,687,501
    – 2019: 328,239,523
    – 2020: 329,877,505

    Multiplying the two we get an interesting result.

    TOTAL DEATHS in the US:

    – 2013 total deaths: 2,578,000
    – 2014 total deaths: 2,630,500
    – 2015 total deaths: 2,683,500
    – 2016 total deaths: 2,737,000
    – 2017 total deaths: 2,788,500
    – 2018 total deaths: 2,837,000
    – 2019 total deaths: 2,882,500
    – 2020 total deaths (proj.): 2,929,500

    Notice the substantial increase each year, absent any named, attention-getting, Panic-creating flu-virus event through the 2010s (some bad flu-strains existed but no one noticed/cared). 2019 had +146,000 more total deaths than 2016, for example, and even +304,500 (!) over 2013.

    2020 was projected to have even more, +351,000 deaths over 2013, an estimate made before anyone knew about Coronavirus.

    The basic mechanisms for these big-looking increases is no mystery, and nothing to panic about (of course):

    Aging population plus higher base population. Plus, some on the margins is due to the well-documented rise in so-called deaths of despair in Middle America, which includes drug-deaths; this part of the increase we SHOULD worry about, as certainly it is much more harmful than the current flu-virus pandemic, by any half-way objective measure. But about the rise of deaths of despair we hardly hear at all. No emergency measures, no martial law, hardly even any attention. Why?

    Needless to say, the observed increase in deaths since 2013 far more than covers (exceeds) the total of number of deaths attributable to the 2020 coronavirus. The CoronaPanic-pushers of 2020 either don’t know or don’t care about this. It qualifies as “Context,” which is a heresy to Corona True Believers.

    U.S. Death Rate 1950-2020:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

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