New Covid-19 graphs from Christopher Bowyer. ONS data here. NHS England data here. (The ONS data is up to the end of week 36, 4 Sep. The NHS data is generally more recent, see each graph for the date.)
All graphs can be clicked to enlarge.
England deaths with Covid-19 by absence (yellow) or presence (green) of a pre-existing condition. Data from NHS England.
Percentage of deaths with Covid-19 by pre-existing condition. (95% have one or more P.E.C.) NHS England data.
Note that the most common pre-existing conditions are diabetes, followed by dementia, chronic pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney disease.
Trendlines (7-day average) for Covid-19 deaths by England NHS region, by date of death. (Note that the numbers in the grey area may increase over the next few days.) NHS England data.
England and Wales total deaths with Covid-19, by detailed age range. ONS data.
ONS England and Wales Covid-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths registered that week.
ONS England and Wales weekly all-cause deaths compared with the five-year average.
As can be seen from the two graphs above, the difference between the weekly 2020 deaths and the 2015-19 average deaths has been a bit odd over the past four weeks. To try & make sense of this, I have done a third graph showing the total weekly deaths for 2020 and the 2015-19 average, which is shown below, along with more of an explanation.
ONS all-cause deaths for 2020 vs 2015-19 average.
Christopher writes of this graph:
As can be seen from this graph, the 2020 and 2015-19 average deaths were pretty steady from week 26 to week 32, 2020 deaths in the range 8600-9200, and 2015-19 average deaths in the 9000-9300 range.
For weeks 33 and 34, the 2015-19 average deaths continued as before (9085 then 9157), but the 2020 deaths rose to 9392 then 9631. I believe this was chiefly down to the heatwave which preceded those weeks, rather than lack of NHS care causing problems yet. It certainly wasn’t due to covid-1984, as the proportion of deaths each week with covid-1984 has fallen for the past 20 weeks!
This is especially as for week 35 the 2020 deaths are 9032, back down in the usual range. However the 2015-19 average deaths in week 35 are only 8241, as this week usually contains the August bank holiday (which delays registrations), but doesn’t in 2020 as it was on 31st August. So week 35 has the 2020 excess deaths rocketing up to 791, when in fact the 2020 deaths have fallen to the usual level – it’s just that from the bank holiday the average 2015-19 deaths have fallen even more!
And in week 36, the 2015-19 average deaths are back to their usual level (9182), but the 2020 deaths have fallen to 7739 from the 2020 August bank holiday occuring a week later than usual. This is is why week 36 has 1443 less deaths than the 2015-19 average, more than cancelling out the 791 excess deaths in week 35!
England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid care home deaths. ONS data.
England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid deaths at home. ONS data.
Hospital deaths for England and Wales. ONS data.
NHS England hospital Covid-19 deaths each day, latest reported figures, with 7-day moving average trendline.
All Covid, hospital Covid, and non-hospital Covid deaths in England each day, with 7-day moving average trendlines.
A close-up of this graph, looking at recent weeks.
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