Positive tests vs admissions vs deaths, graph from Christopher Bowyer (mid-September)

Hector Drummond Magazine reader and contributor Christopher Bowyer has done some more graphs using data from coronavirus.data.gov.uk. (Graphs can be clicked to enlarge.)

The first one looks at Covid-19 positive tests (blue), Covid hospital admissions (green), and Covid deaths (red) for England. You can see that there’s been a slight increase in hospital admissions since the end of August, but nothing startling. It would be extraordinary if we didn’t see a rise over autumn and winter as that is the flu season, but it’s unlikely to be as dramatic as Whitty and Vallance are making out. 



And here’s another way of looking at the data, with the death numbers plotted on the right-hand side of the graph to make full use of the height of the graph. As Christopher says, “It really shows how the death rate hasn’t increased at all, despite the positive tests having increased constantly since the end of June”.



And here’s another useful graph: hospital admissions per 1000 positive tests.


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15 thoughts on “Positive tests vs admissions vs deaths, graph from Christopher Bowyer (mid-September)

  1. The government and many pro-lockdown ‘scientists’ must be looking at different data to me. Astounding! Instead of making predictions (which are never even close to being accurate), why can’t the government react to live data? And why do the government (and their scientific advisors) insist on calling positive tests ‘cases’ when they are not cases? Finally, why are they getting their knickers in a twist about increases in positive tests when many of them are likely to be false positives and if true positives, they are likely to asymptomatic people. The majority of the political class and academe are full of neurotic children.

  2. Hancock concerned too many want tested, introduces Disincentive – £10,000 fine if positive or false positive

    7 Sep Percentage of positive tests has dropped from 40% to less than 2.5% (2.3%)

    Latest figures: Monday 21 September
    – Daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 4,368
    – Daily number of “with” deaths: 11 [out of ~1,687 who died today]
    ~250,000 tests, 4,368 positive = 1.75% positive
    PHE say test is 2% False positive – more than all false positives?

    The inventor of PCR test Dr Mullis stated they do not detect viruses they pick up [dead/live] fragments of DNA and RNA; an indicator of presence not a diagnosis of eg pathogen infection.
    BBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZsEAQbiBTo – good comments
    – Dr Daniels “We’ve been using these tests for this for years, so OK” – No, using PCR test repeatedly for wrong testing doesn’t make it correct

    @Mark A
    Gov’t still relying on models, not empirical data
    Last week another model fail revealed:
    Test Tzar Dido Harding to MPs “Our models never predicted a surge in test requests” – nobody considered schools & unis opening

    Cases – Gov’t and msm misusing words to induce fear really angers me. It’s Presence not Case
    Stubborn autistic neurotic children

  3. I suppose to make a truer comparison we need to allow for the lag between testing and hospitalisation. In the early part of the pandemic, this was zero or perhaps even negative (i.e. people only being tested after admission to hospital), due to the shortage of testing capacity. Now it will be 3-4 days in advance, assuming that hospitalised cases asked for testing on getting symptoms rather than waiting until they called an ambulance. Of course, if Hancock succeeds in cutting back on unnecessary negative testing, the positive testing rate will increase, which will help confound the analysis. It may imply a slightly higher rate of hospitalisations to come from the higher level of positive test results. Positive tests remain concentrated in small areas for the most part: the breadths of lockdowns give a very false impression. It seems that they may be more than sufficient to get outbreaks under control – there is no exponential growth in recent days, but I suppose we may get a sudden lab catch-up added into the figures to persuade us.

    Hancock was less than forthcoming about the amount of re-testing of test positives (and particularly asymptomatic ones) when interviewed by Julia H-B. Of course, it has the potential to cut down the number of false positives contaminating the system. I did discover that the ONS survey asks people about any other tests they may have had, which will allow them to reduce the false positive count from their own testing, and it also follows up a positive survey result with a blood test – ditto.

  4. False Positives and NHS Closed

    Coronavirus: ‘At most we’re in a second ripple’ Dr Mike Yeadon has called on Matt Hancock to provide evidence that the UK is heading towards a second coronavirus wave

    There was never a first wave as such. Considering that covid was used as cause of death with reckless abandonment, which led to a totally blown out of proportion draconian lockdown
    People need to stop complying now or we’ll lose our freedoms forever

    Excellent, JHB’s facts make Shapps very, very visibly uncomfortable, he flounders and resorts to diversion {which JHB stops] inventing ‘facts’ like Hancock did too

    Julia Hartley-Brewer challenges Grant Shapps over coronavirus test false positive rate

    Shapps “we are lucky” the government talks to us and treats us the way they do! Spoken like a true tyrant

    Sir Graham Brady, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee

    Government ‘shouldn’t be allowed to govern by decree’ on Covid restrictions

    The real question is should we end all covid related measures and the emphatic answer is yes. Graham. If this power does come your way, for Christ sake put a stop to this destructive farcical nonsense.
    Bring in the Swedish advisors. And sack these clowns

  5. Pcar and the majority of others on this site have rightly called out this thoroughly ridiculous, enraging and pointless exercise for what it is. By dint of the very informative graphs CB and others have produced here over many weeks, it has been completely exposed and demonstrated beyond any possible doubt to be the criminal scam that it is, and always has been.
    BUT, what gets me banjaxed beyond comprehension is just why the government, supported by their supposed “experts”, continue on the path that they do.
    For Christ’s sake-WHY? WHY, with all the financial implications, the mess the “NHS” is now further in, the presumable loss of political “popularity”, the upcoming unemployment numbers, the angering of the “Red wall vote”, WHY, with all that and much more, just WHY do they continue to stick their collective head in the sand?
    I believe Johnson will make another balls of it today, with whatever announcement he may make. I believe that Brady and the ’22 will kowtow and I believe we will still be in this quicksand in 6 months time. I really hope I’m wrong, but….
    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, and I find it impossible to believe in this being some sinister world-wide plan that all governments are complicit and colluding in to subject the peoples of the world to complete domination or mass vaccination.
    Having said that, it’s virtually impossible to believe that this is a continuity cock-up, with political expediency the only driver.
    Simple question for Johnson-WHY?
    I’m not expecting a sensible or honest answer to that. Ever.

  6. NeverReady, my question “Why” was not aimed at why or how this nonsense had come about or any possible cause of it!
    I get that.
    No, I was asking why the establishment CONTINUE to fly in the face of sense and sensibility, continuing on their merry way, doing what they’re doing, despite all the good stuff (called proof or evidence) contained here and elsewhere.
    My apologies if I did not make that clear, but my question still stands.

  7. I believe that anyone who is admitted to hospital is tested. Do we know that these hospitalizations are even a result of CV19 symptoms, or are people who are going to hospital for other reasons becoming part of the Covid statistics due to false positives and an overly sensitive test which is picking up past infections?
    Could they be mainly elderly people who were previously diagnosed with CV19 and who recovered, but have since become ill as old people do?

  8. John Wilkinson: “No, I was asking why the establishment CONTINUE to fly in the face of sense and sensibility, continuing on their merry way, doing what they’re doing, despite all the good stuff (called proof or evidence) contained here and elsewhere.”

    Incompetence, plus the cynic in me thinks it’s partly about protecting the govt rather than the people.

  9. I’ve read that hospital admissions per month are just under 1.5m in normal times, and that in June this had dropped to just over 0.9m as people avoided contact with the health system if they thought that they could or if they thought that there wasn’t any point. In addition many people with severe CV-19 symptoms were told to stay away from hospitals and tough it out in bed.

    So I’m wondering if some of the rise in the CV-19 hospital admission number is due to the general increase in hospital admissions from the low point, and bringing in cases that would previously have been told to stay away, partly as there is confidence in the capacity to deal with them and also because there are treatments available now e.g. dexamethasone which are better to offer to those previously advised to stay home.

    I’m sure that controlling for these effects it is unlikely that hospital admissions are still falling, but if there’s any data on the effects above i’d be curious to know.

  10. I read that the NBA as part of their covid bubble testing for players stated they will only declare a case if they have 2 positive samples for a player from independent labs as they were concerned about false positives derailing the games and costing them what little revenue they have.
    If only our own govt’ showed such care and common-sense

  11. @John Wilkinson Tuesday 22nd September 2020 at 08:42
    The WHY the Gov’t keeps repeating and increasing destructive lunacy is a question many ask, it’s gone way beyond admitting a mistake. They now seem obsessed with creating fear and destruction with Labour opposition cheering it on with ‘more and faster’

    Gov’t are fighting the “enemy” by destroying their own country and now going for scorched earth ‘eradicate the enemy at all costs’. They might as well order RN subs to unleash their Trident nuclear missiles on UK

    Today we have Kim Jong Boris announcing Martial Law with troops on streets

    All this over an infection partly responsible for ~1% of ~1,689 daily deaths

    btw Good Testing and False Positives Impact – Example from CEBM

    James Dellingpole: Government’s coronavirus handling is ‘biggest political scandal of our lifetime’

    Julia. This is not a ‘serious’ virus. This is a virus, yes, and it does make some people very ill, and does indeed kill some people. But words matter. With an IFR just a bit above seasonal flu, while mostly asymptomatic to those under 65, let alone deadly, which seasonal flu certainly is not, if this is a ‘serious’ virus, we have run out of word-juice

    Richard Tice: The country is even more divided than it was on Brexit
    Government has shown an “utter lack of courage and front foot leadership” during the coronavirus pandemic, and “that is holding us back and making more people petrified.”

    Spot on Richard

    Boris Johnson needs to axe these lockdown obsessed boffin buffoons and look to other experts… who look to Sweden and believe there is a different and a better way forward”

  12. @Matt
    Covid-19 Hospital admissions are anyone who is positive/false-positive or was in last 28 days, regardless of why admitted – fell down stairs, car crash, stabbed…

    New “Cases” today were again <2% of all tested – ~98% will be false-positive

    Piers vs bigger egg-wetter Talks some sense on the Vallance & Whitty ‘maybe, might, if, could Doom Show’ (note some)

  13. In reply to Dene Bebbington.

    Incompetence, plus the cynic in me thinks it’s partly about protecting the govt rather than the people.

    I agree this is the probable reason, but surely they must know by now that the cat is out of the bag and the emperor has no clothes? At this rate Boris and co will end up like those Japanese soldiers on Pacific islands who were still fighting WWII 30 years after VJ day, a tragic laughing stock (if not already).

  14. John Wilkinson Why?
    I don’t really know, I am as baffled and despairing as you. But two observations:
    Reliance on ‘spin’, so adept at manipulating the public over imagined hobgoblins they find themselves at loss to control a real crisis.
    Focus groups? how do you conduct a focus group in a lockdown? How can people who are isolated, fed only the government’s preferred narrative, provide any insight into what the public really think? Like a ‘citizens assembly’ only allowed a voice after a suitable period of re-education.

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