Week 39 graphs from Christopher Bowyer

New Covid-19 graphs from Christopher Bowyer. ONS data here. NHS England data here. (The ONS data is up to the end of week 39, 25 Sep. The NHS data is generally more recent, see each graph for the date.)

All graphs can be clicked to enlarge.


England deaths with Covid-19 by absence (yellow) or presence (green) of a pre-existing condition. Data from NHS England.



Percentage of deaths with Covid-19 by pre-existing condition. (95% have one or more P.E.C.) NHS England data.


Note that the most common pre-existing conditions are diabetes, followed by dementia, chronic pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney disease.


Trendlines (7-day average) for Covid-19 deaths by England NHS region, by date of death. (Note that the numbers in the grey area may increase over the next few days.) NHS England data.



Trendlines (7-day average) for Covid-19 deaths per million by England NHS region, by date of death. (Note that the numbers in the grey area may increase over the next few days.) NHS England data.



England and Wales total deaths with Covid-19, by detailed age range. ONS data.



ONS England and Wales Covid-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths registered that week.


Of this graph, Christopher says:

Back in the Spring, it took two weeks to go from 1% (week 12) to 21% (week 14), up by a factor of 21 in a fortnight. But in the autumn, it has taken two weeks to go from 1% (week 37) to 2.2% (week 39) – up by only a factor of 2.2 in a fortnight. It’s not so much a “second wave” as a tiny ripple.



ONS England and Wales weekly all-cause deaths compared with the five-year average.



ONS all-cause deaths for 2020 vs 2015-19 average.



England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid care home deaths. ONS data.



England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid deaths at home. ONS data.



Hospital deaths for England and Wales. ONS data.



NHS England hospital Covid-19 deaths each day, latest reported figures, with 7-day moving average trendline.



All Covid, hospital Covid, and non-hospital Covid deaths in England each day, with 7-day moving average trendlines.



A close-up of this graph, looking at recent weeks.



And here’s a new graph: ‘with Covid’ deaths (yellow) compared to flu and pneumonia deaths (blue), with the red line the five-year average for flu/pneumonia.


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9 thoughts on “Week 39 graphs from Christopher Bowyer

  1. I sent these graphs to a bedwetter friend. I now need to get past the “why should I believe those people?” stage. Do you have any links where I can follow up on Christopher Bowyer, what’s his expertise and how to download an process the data? I’m sure it’s already been done but a quick idiots guide would be very useful.
    Many thanks in advance for your patience!

  2. Because ‘these people’ are the Office for National Statistics, and NHS England, they are the source of the numbers, as stated in paragraph 1 of the post.
    You’re not seriously suggesting that Christopher Bowyer provide evidence of his ability to draw graphs using other peoples numbers are you?

  3. My thoughts are that given the enormous pressure on the statisticians to support government ‘policy’ and the media’s fear mongering, its absolutely amazing that they can’t produce better numbers in support of the ‘hype’. The last graph says it all I think.

  4. Christopher, informative as always. Maybe Professor Angus Dalgleish is a reader

    The Excellent and Pragmatic

    The ‘cure’ is worse than Covid. Driven to despair by lockdown, two of Professor Angus Dalgleish’s colleagues took their own lives… and compelled him to join a growing rebellion against Cromwellian restrictions

    Worth reading, Professor Dalgleish nails Gov’t, NHS & MSM error and idiocy repeatedly

    The Tyrants of NHS NC-19HS

    British Medical Association and SAGE demand masks mandatory Outside: Doctors call for tougher nationwide rules including restricted alcohol sales

    Their justification: too confusing to only have to wear in shops, make it everywhere outside home
    Note: BMA is a Trade Union (many MDs do not join); it is not the GMC

    Completely ignores: Face Masks can Kill

    “Medical Doctor Warns that “Bacterial Pneumonias Are on the Rise” from Mask Wearing

    The mayor and health chief of Tulsa in the US are being sued by a group who say the city’s mask mandate is harmful to health. The group includes Dr James Meehan, who says:

    Mask wearing has well-known risks that have been well-studied and they’re not being discussed in the risk analysis. I’m seeing patients that have facial rashes, fungal infections, bacterial infections. Reports coming from my colleagues, all over the world, are suggesting that the bacterial pneumonias are on the rise.

    Why might that be? Because untrained members of the public are wearing medical masks, repeatedly… in a non-sterile fashion… They’re becoming contaminated. They’re pulling them off of their car seat, off the rearview mirror, out of their pocket, from their countertop, and they’re reapplying a mask that should be worn fresh and sterile every single time.

    New research is showing that cloth masks may be increasing the aerosolization of the SARS-COV-2 virus into the environment causing an increased transmission of the disease.”

    I have not and will not wear a virtue face mask for C-19. I do wear a proper mask/respirator when necessary

    Ask them to read Professor Angus Dalgleish’s article

  5. Pcar: “The Tyrants of NHS NC-19HS”

    Have you noticed the NHS now have the cheek to run TV ads telling people to see their GPs if they have conditions which might be cancer? This is after they stopped cancer treatments for many patients and while some GPs still seem reluctant to conduct in-person appointments.

  6. @Dene
    Yes. It’s sickening and Gov’t lies – where’s ASA?

    Mother (80+): phones surgery “I need to speak to a doctor”; “You can’t, phone back tomorrow at 8am to request a call from doctor”; “Can’t he phone me today?”; “No”

    Aunt: 74 and on home oxygen: “I need to see a doctor, please send one”; “No, we need a sputum sample first, bring it to surgery”; “I can’t”; “Find someone who will, bye”

    More NHS Closed, NC-19HS Open:

    News Exclusive: Interview with an NHS Nurse:
    “Where’s the challenge? Where’s the crisis? Where’s this Covid?”


    Also on page
    “~25% of Pillar 1 “cases” are patients who have caught C-19 in hospital”
    That’s more than the <5% caught in hospitality venues. Should NHS be closed to protect public?

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