Robert Watson: Week 17 (to April 24th) Update on Age and Sex Cohort Deaths per 1,000

This is an article by Prof Robert Watson, whose last article at Hector Drummond Magazine was one of the best academic analyses to have come out of the Covid-19 fiasco.

Introduction and Summary

This post focuses on the following issue:

To incorporate the week 17 (April 24th) ONS updated material (published on 5th May) to my previous analysis of the week 11 to 16 data. The objective is to determine if the same patterns and conclusions noted in the earlier post are still applicable and justified by the extended seven-week (weeks 11 to 17) timescale.

Spoiler alert: the week 11 to 17 analysis confirms everything demonstrated in the previous post.

Weeks 11 to 17 Analyses

As of the 24th April a total of 27,330 Covid-19 attributed deaths had been recorded in England and Wales, of which some 58.4% were male and 41.6% were female. No such sex bias exists in regard to all other causes of death. Over the same seven-week period the total number of deaths from all other (non-Covid-19) causes in England and Wales came to 84,726 (of which 49.8% were male and 50.2% female). As with the previous post, Total Deaths From All Other Causes (i.e., excluding Covid-19-assigned cases) = Total Deaths (ONS weeks 11 to 17) – Total Covid-19 assigned Deaths.

Therefore, Deaths From All Other Causes + Covid-19 Deaths = Total Deaths.

We start with Deaths From All Other Causes as a proportion of the relevant age and sex cohort (for weeks 11-17). This provides a benchmark Deaths Per 1,000 for each age and sex cohort. Essentially, these numbers provide an indication of how deadly ‘normal’ life has been over the past seven weeks for each age and sex cohort.

Now the same age and sex cohort deaths per 1,000 analysis is undertaken in relation to the Covid-19 assigned deaths occurring over the same seven-week period.

Adding these two sets of figures gives us total deaths per 1,000 by age and sex cohort (weeks 11-17).

Comparative male total deaths function (the red line) compared to the total deaths excluding Covid-19 function (the blue line).

Comparative female total deaths function (the red line) compared to the total deaths excluding Covid-19 function (the blue line).

In summary, the updated material confirms all the observations made in the previous post, namely that:

– For all age and sex cohorts, death rates from all other causes are several times higher than the alleged Covid-19 death rates. This implies that for every age and sex cohort normal life over the same seven-week period has proved to be far more deadly than Covid-19.

– Male death rates for all age cohorts in regard to both all other causes and Covid-19 continue to be higher than that of females at all age cohorts above fifteen years of age. This suggests that Covid-19 slightly reinforces the observation that from early adulthood, males are subject to significantly higher premature death rates vis-a-vis females.

– Over 81% of Covid-19 deaths occur in cohorts >= 70 years old. The comparative figures in respect of males and females are respectively 79.1% and 84.8%. In stark contrast, only 0.03% of Covid-19 deaths occur amongst the under 20 year olds. Apropos, all other causes of death, the percentages of male and female deaths occurring in age cohorts 70 and over are respectively 79.1% and 84.3%. Moreover, as indicated by the exponential increase in cohort death rates for each successive five-year age cohort above 70-74, the pattern of Covid-19 deaths seems to largely replicate the normal life and death patterns from all other causes. In essence, death is predominantly – if not quite exclusively – the preserve of the old, and the older one becomes, the much greater the likelihood of death from any cause.

– The incremental impact of Covid-19 upon total death rates is, for all age cohorts, pretty marginal when compared to their respective ‘all other causes’ death rates. Moreover, Covid-19 death rates largely, in the case of females, replicate the existing ‘all other deaths’ age profile or, as in the case of males, slightly reinforce the existing pattern of higher male attrition rates from ‘all other causes’ characteristic of all adult (>=15-19) male age cohorts.